Let’s face it. And, I am not joking here. Hajiya Turai has contributed immeasurably to the esoteric matters of power relations in Nigeria. Or, should we say in the world? Turai's success so far has made both Machiavelli and Robert Greene (the inimitable author of The 48 Laws of Power) look like small boys by the way she has manipulated the levers of state power in Africa’s most populous nation. In spite of our troubles, Nigeria still remains the intellectual hub of Africa. We have some of the smartest and sophisticated men around; and, in Europe, the United States and the Middle East, we have many Nigerian professionals manning several centres of excellence.

Nigerians are a very proud people who have supplied the world with academics, peacekeeping forces and a large market for goods and services. We are an incredible nation of 150 million people. Our businessmen are the wealthiest in Africa even though South Africa has, by far, the biggest economy. Yet, a village girl - or so we thought - has played on our intelligence, controlled the directions of power and demanded forcefully, and even successfully, that the country be run on her terms.

Long before now, Turai had engineered the marriage of her pretty daughters to serving governors. It was a deliberate strategic move. She foresaw our current predicament, and calculated that, in the event of her husband becoming permanently incapacitated, she would have reserves from which to choose a vice president. If you want one from the North-West, she has a candidate; and if it is the North-East, there is a competent one. The North-Central, she must have calculated, would be out of contention because the Senate presidency had already been given to the zone. That must be why no North-Central governor has even been considered a potential husband for any of the remaining girls. But before the governors-in-law become useful, she would do everything to preserve the president's office for herself only. This is not greed. She is only being politically savvy. People who do not understand ascribe some kind of special powers to a kitchen cabinet. No, it’s not true.

Turai is the only one that matters here. She is the only one in the kitchen, literally. In the normal run of things, the president should at the moment be in the hands of security agents who would determine and control access to him. They would determine when even Turai herself, her children and other relations would see him, because the president is the property of the state. But Turai has completely upturned this rule of statecraft. She is the one in sole possession of the president and she has decided that no one should see him. In other words, this is a case of sole proprietorship. Turai is the sole owner of the presidency at the moment. At a point, the security agencies had no idea where the Nigerian president was, and even when they eventually knew they were not allowed to set eyes on him.

In every country, the president is always in custody of the security and intelligence institutions. It has always been so even in Nigeria, except in the current dispensation. Turai has successfully shielded our president, who just happens to be her husband, from the nation's number two, three, four and five. The ruling party's chairman went to Jeddah but could not see him. The president's mother and sisters have also not set eyes on the man they had known as a little child before he became an adult, long before he met Turai. They, too, rely on the news items in the media most of which we now know are rumours.

We must give it to her: Turai has contributed seminally to the art and science of power. Turai’s first law of power is: "Keep the president to yourself and control information flow." We have always known that whoever controls information flow holds power but Turai has obviously taken this to a new level. I heard that Michael Aondoakaa, Turai’s real point-man, once asked a relation of the president whom he thought should know the facts the real state of the president. That was a few days before the famous BBC interview. The former AGF pleaded to be told the truth about Umaru’s health status. In fact, he asked the bewildered relative whether the president was still alive or dead. The relative told him that he didn't have a clue and that he, in fact, had always relied on his (Aondoakaa’s) public utterances to gauge his uncle's progress. The former attorney-general then confessed to him that, apart from Turai, nobody had seen or spoken to the president since he left Nigeria for Saudi Arabia.

But Turai, while keeping mute throughout, spoke with Aondoakaa daily to give directives and instruct him on what to tell the Nigerian public when he was still attorney-general who also wanted to double as information minister. Aondoakaa carried out all the instructions as a dutiful servant would. This brings us to Turai’s second law of power: "Whoever controls the levers of power must absolutely avoid making public statements even in the face of the most intense provocation. Make all statements through a dispensable stooge like Aondoakaa."

Turai’s third law of power: "Spread effective rumours through those with access to the media." For some time now, we have consistently heard that the president shall be coming back "next week" but this "next week" never comes. The first newspaper to report this was ThisDay. Other respected newspapers have also fallen victims, including The Guardian and Daily Trust. The idea is to create the impression that the Umaru era has not ended and it will be in everybody's interest to remain loyal. About six Saturdays ago, I noticed that one of the "top stories" that the editor of LEADERSHIP SUNDAY had lined up for his front page the following day included a definitive item that the president would be returning Monday - that's in two days. I wondered why the story was so authoritative, so I called the editor to enquire about his source. He told me it was another senior editor who sent the story. I told the editor to get the guy to call me - to explain his source. When he eventually called, he said he got the story from an "intelligence source". On a careful examination, I knew the story was planted and the editor was not even aware of it. I immediately spiked the story and, thankfully, LEADERSHIP was spared the embarrassment. It’s been about five Mondays since, and the man has still not shown up.

It is not clear where Turai learnt all these but she has stupefied even the greatest pundits of power around the world. She certainly couldn't have got this from any books as some of her methods are quite original; and Turai, a typical Katsina woman who watches only Indian films, could not have received this wisdom from any blockbuster Hollywood movie. I also totally reject the view from certain quarters that Turai has been so successful so far because she is too illiterate to appreciate the dangers of what she is doing. On the contrary, I think her steps are very calculated and quite measured, and I think some of us should be humble enough to accept that her contributions to the power game has been quite ground-breaking and should be thought-provoking. And I will be really surprised if Turai does not already know how another very powerful first lady in her league, Aisha Hamani Diori of Niger Republic, ended up in 1974.

E A R S H O T

Obasanjo, Please Don’t Go To Niger

I hope former President Olusegun Obasanjo has been listening to the news lately. One of his disciples on the African continent, who had picked up a few bad manners from him and had insisted on taking his own third term bid to the end, has just been toppled in a very popular military coup. After spending 10 years in power, Mamadou Tandja must have foolishly believed the mantra that military coups are no longer fashionable and thought whatever he did, including silencing all opposition, he would get away with it.

This one is a good coup if it will be able to restore democracy as quickly as it has promised. It was the first coup I have seen where the ordinary people lined up the streets to cheer the coup makers, who conducted their own coup in broad daylight. I advise the UN or AU not to send Obasanjo on any troubleshooting assignment to Niger. And, even if he is appointed, I expect his famous native intelligence to get the better part of him. But on second thoughts, wouldn't Nigerians be glad to push Obasanjo into the hands of the coup makers there? The new junta would also be very glad to have him and would also be equally glad to put him and Tandja - the two-third termers - in the same prison cell before probably treating them to the Rawlings medicine. People should always be careful what they wish for. They may just get it.

here is a jinx on Nigeria that needs to be broken. We must start asking ourselves why, as a people, we always go the wrong way even when doing the right thing has always been much simpler and more straightforward. The time has come for Nigeria to move forward. The world is tired of our shabbiness; even though Nigeria is generally considered an important country by the rest of the world, we are less so today than we used to be. And if we don't get our act together as soon as possible, it will not be long before we become totally and completely inconsequential in the affairs of the world.

Since the June 12 debacle, Nigeria has not really smoothened out because we just cannot get ourselves into doing the commonsense right things. After the inexplicable annulment of the June 12, 1993, presidential election, we were told that General Ibrahim Babangida, the then president, after realising that he had been misled by some of his aides, instructed one of his speechwriters to draft a speech in which he would reverse himself. When Professor Omo Omoruyi, who was given the instruction, came back with the reversal speech, he was prevented from seeing the president by those who had got wind of what was about to happen. That was how Chief Ernest Shonekan's government came into being and became known as a child of necessity.

We must also remember that Shonekan's government was not the first child of necessity that was recorded in the history of Nigeria. General Aguiyi Ironsi's government was the first recorded child of necessity. When the misadventure of Majors Chukwuma Nzeogwu and Emmanuel Ifeajuna hit the rocks on January 15, 1966, the right thing would have been for the loyal segment of the Nigerian Army to support the remnants of the Abubakar Tafawa Balewa government to continue in power. But General Ironsi, who saw an opening and did not want to let it pass, asked Chief Nwafor Orizu, the acting president, to hand over power to him. Ironsi told them that the only way he could guarantee their personal safety was for him to take over immediately as head of government.

In the circumstances, the politicians had no choice since it was the same Ironsi they would have depended on in the first place. Compare this with General TY Danjuma on February 13, 1976, when Col. Dimka succeeded in killing General Murtala Mohammed in an abortive coup. Danjuma was the one in charge. Olusegun Obasanjo had gone into hiding under a mattress at an unknown location. If Danjuma, who had the full support of the army then, had behaved like Ironsi 10 years earlier, he would have taken over as head of state, and the polity would probably have been destabilised after Dimka's madness. But because of the statesmanship that was displayed by Danjuma, Obasanjo took over and that government became one of the best in Nigeria's recorded history.

Ironsi's government, like that of Shonekan, was also described by the pundits at the time as a child of necessity. And like all children of necessity in Nigeria, it was destined to die young. The Shonekan government lasted only three months. Ironsi did even much better: he lasted six months.

That is why I get quite uncomfortable when people describe Goodluck Jonathan's government as a child of necessity. It should not be considered a compliment at all. Nigerians must learn to do things the proper way. We all know that it is the Federal Executive Council members that have put us all in this hole. This same FEC that declared that Umaru was fit and proper and therefore needed not transfer power to the vice president is the same one that has now thrown its weight solidly behind Jonathan after the transfer of power. Is that the kind of FEC that Nigerians should rely on? The right thing to do would have been to work the provisions of section 145 of the constitution. The Senate's voodoo logic of interpreting a BBC interview, which still remains a subject of speculation and cynicism even among very well-respected power centres, is, to say the least, very awkward and embarrassing.

I hope that Nigeria can still retrace its steps before we start reaping the full wages of our lawlessness again, as has happened each time we put a child of necessity in place. The straightforward thing to do now, free from all ambiguities and compromise and in the interest of the nation and its long-suffering people, is to impeach Umaru forthwith. There are at least two grounds to do so. First, he did not transmit a letter to the National Assembly 84 days ago when he left the shores of Nigeria to seek treatment in an unknown location in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. If he was able to "sign" the supplementary budget, we see no reason why he has not been able to send the letter. Unless, of course, someone starts confessing now that the signature on the supplementary budget is fake. If the president did not transmit a letter and has stayed away from duty in a location that no one except Turai knows, then, he has endangered the nation and should therefore be removed from office by impeachment. If such abandonment or desertion, if you like, does not qualify for the removal of a president, then, we should change our name from The Federal Republic of Nigeria to The Banana Republic of Nigeria.

The second reason to consider impeachment is on account of permanent incapacitation in accordance with the provisions of the constitution. If no one has seen the president since he left the country 84 days ago, then, it will be plausible to assume that he has become permanently incapacitated and therefore cannot continue in his capacity as president of the country. That should not be too difficult for us to comprehend. Unless we want to play the ostrich, it is clear that Umaru cannot get well enough to return to Aso Rock, even though we pray that he get well enough to return to his family in Katsina. And we should not continue to place the destiny of Nigeria and its 150 million people on hold because of one man whose mandate to be president is questionable in the first place.

There's also another compelling reason why Umaru should be impeached to allow the nation move on. Nobody in his right senses would pray for the death of anyone, so we pray that Umaru should get well enough to come back home to the company of his children, grandchildren and the warm embrace of Turai of course. But from the facts on ground, he is unlikely to get well enough to continue as president. To be president is no child's play even for a healthy person. If the current status quo is maintained and Umaru is not removed from office, Goodluck may continue to be acting president ad infinitum. And as long as he remains acting president, there will be no vice president, because he remains the de jure vice president. This means that he will never travel out of the country. Also, if anything suddenly happened to him (God forbid), Nigeria would be left without a leader. Even though Umaru has proved that Nigeria does not need a president, leaving things this way will be taking our good luck too far.

Again, if Goodluck remains acting president and there is no vice president, it means that the entire North, which is bigger than the other half of the country, will be left out of the presidency of the country. This is contrary to the principle of federal character and is in itself unconstitutional. That also makes Goodluck a sole administrator of a sort in the presidency, and, depending on how he appropriates the levers of power, there may be grave consequences for that.

There is no other way of moving forward and nipping a looming disaster in the bud without removing Umaru from office, declaring Goodluck the substantive president and getting a very competent vice president who will represent the entire North. That will be the only right thing to do.

And for those who are still hallucinating that "it is the turn of the North", it bears repeating that turn-by-turn presidency is not in the constitution. The North stands the better chance of producing the president of this country now and always, but only if they put forward their best candidates and insist on free and fair elections. Because the North has numerical superiority, if the elites put forward their best shot, they will always win. It's simple arithmetic. But if they put forward a Bashir Tofa against an MKO Abiola, Abiola will defeat the Northern candidate even in his own native Kano State. And if they allow a miscreant like Obasanjo to rig elections for them just to serve narrow interests, they will always be the losers as is the case today.

The North, and indeed Nigeria, will need to learn a lot from what is happening today. If people are just going to sit by and watch the wrong things happen and not even raise a voice, they will live long enough to see the fruits of their spinelessness. It's the more reason why we must reverse what happened on February 9 and proceed towards a permanent solution.

 E A R S H O T

They Just Can’t Return And Keep Quiet

Members of the House of Reps committee who travelled to Saudi Arabia on an assignment to see the president are said to have returned. But they have not told Nigerians anything. If they travelled with taxpayers' money, then, they must tell us exactly what they saw in Saudi Arabia. If they did not sight the president, then, they must tell us what Turai told them. They must not be allowed to take the nation for a ride. They must give us the result of their assignment. After all, we paid for their trip.